Beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin point of care testing for the management of pregnancy of unknown location.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Does a commercially available quantitative beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin (BHCG) point of care testing (POCT) device improve workflow management in early pregnancy by performing comparably to gold standard laboratory methods, and is the performance of a validated pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) triage strategy maintained using POCT BHCG results? DESIGN: Women classified with a PUL between 2018 and 2021 at three early pregnancy units were included. The linear relationship of untreated whole-blood POCT and serum laboratory BHCG values was defined using coefficients and regression. Paired serial BHCG values were then incorporated into the validated M6 multinomial logistic regression model to stratify the PUL as at high risk or at low risk of clinical complications. The sensitivity and negative predictive value were assessed. The timings required for equivocal POCT and laboratory care pathways were compared. RESULTS: A total of 462 PUL were included. The discrepancy between 571 laboratory and POCT BHCG values was -5.2% (-6.2 IU/l), with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. The 133 PUL with paired 0 and 48 h BHCG values were compared using the M6 model. The sensitivity for high-risk outcomes (96.2%) and negative predictive values (98.5%) was excellent for both. Sample receipt and laboratory processing took 135 min (421 timings), compared with 12 min (91 timings) when using POCT (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: POCT BHCG values correlated well with laboratory testing measurements. The M6 model retained its performance when using POCT BHCG values. Using the model with POCT may improve workflow and patient care without compromising on effective PUL triage.

Ambulatory human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) testing: a verification of two hCG point of care devices.

OBJECTIVES: Quantitative human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurements are used to manage women classified with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL). Two point of care testing (POCT) devices that quantify hCG are commercially available. We verified the i-STAT 1 (Abbott) and the AQT 90 FLEX (Radiometer) prior to use in PUL triage. METHODS: Tests for precision, external quality assurance (EQA), correlation, hook effect and recovery were undertaken alongside a POCT usability assessment during this prospective multi-center verification. RESULTS: Coefficients of variation ranged between 4.0 and 5.1 % for the three i-STAT 1 internal quality control (IQC) solutions and between 6.8 and 7.3 % for the two AQT IQC solutions. Symmetric differences in POCT EQA results when compared with laboratory and EQA stock values ranged between 3.2 and 24.5 % for the i-STAT 1 and between 3.3 and 36.9 % for the AQT. Correlation coefficients (i-STAT 1: 0.96, AQT: 0.99) and goodness of fit curves (i-STAT 1: 0.92, AQT: 0.99) were excellent when using suitable whole blood samples. An hCG hook effect was noted with the i-STAT 1 between 572,194 and 799,089 IU/L, lower than the hook effect noted with the AQT, which was between 799,089 and 1,619,309 IU/L. When hematocrit concentration was considered in sample types validated for use with each device, hCG recovery was 108 % with the i-STAT 1 and 98 % with the AQT. The i-STAT 1 scored lower on usability overall (90/130) than the AQT (121/130, p<0.001, Mann-Whitney). CONCLUSIONS: Both hCG POCT devices were verified for use in clinical practice. Practical factors must also be considered when choosing which device to use in each unit.

Using simple clinical and ultrasound variables to develop a model to predict first trimester pregnancy viability.

INTRODUCTION: Early prediction of pregnancies destined to miscarry will allow couples to prepare for this common but often unexpected eventuality, and clinicians to allocate finite resources. We aimed to develop a prediction model combining clinical, demographic, and sonographic data as a clinical tool to aid counselling about first trimester pregnancy outcome. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a prospective, observational cohort study conducted at Queen Charlotte's and Chelsea Hospital, UK from March 2014 to May 2019. Women with confirmed intrauterine pregnancies between 5 weeks and their dating scan (11-14 weeks) were recruited. Participants attended serial ultrasound scans in the first trimester and at each visit recorded symptoms of vaginal bleeding, pelvic pain, nausea and vomiting using validated scoring tools. Pregnancies were followed up until the dating scan (11-14 weeks). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to predict first trimester viability. A model was developed with multivariable logistic regression, variables limited by feature selection, and bootstrapping with multiple imputation was used for internal validation. RESULTS: 1403 women were recruited and after exclusions, data were available for 1105. 160 women (14.5 %) experienced first trimester miscarriage and 945 women (85.5 %) had viable pregnancies at 11-14 weeks' gestation. The average gestational age at the initial visit (calculated from the menstrual dates) was 7 + 1 weeks (+/-12.2 days). A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to predict first trimester viability and included the variables: mean gestational sac diameter, presence of fetal heart pulsations, difference in gestational age from last menstrual period and from mean sac diameter on ultrasonography, current folic acid usage and maternal age. The model demonstrated good performance (optimism-corrected area under curve (AUC) 0.84, 95 % CI 0.81-0.87; optimism-corrected calibration slope 0.969). CONCLUSION: We have developed and internally validated a model to predict first trimester viability with good accuracy prior to the 11-14 week dating scan, which now needs to be externally validated prior to clinical use.

Evaluating cut-off levels for progesterone, ß human chorionic gonadotropin and ß human chorionic gonadotropin ratio to exclude pregnancy viability in women with a pregnancy of unknown location: A prospective multicenter cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: There is no global agreement on how to best determine pregnancy of unknown location viability and location using biomarkers. Measurements of progesterone and ß human chorionic gonadotropin (ßhCG) are still used in clinical practice to exclude the possibility of a viable intrauterine pregnancy (VIUP). We evaluate the predictive value of progesterone, ßhCG, and ßhCG ratio cut-off levels to exclude a VIUP in women with a pregnancy of unknown location. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of prospective multicenter study data of consecutive women with a pregnancy of unknown location between January 2015 and 2017 collected from dedicated early pregnancy assessment units of eight hospitals. Single progesterone and serial ßhCG measurements were taken. Women were followed up until final pregnancy outcome between 11 and 14 weeks of gestation was confirmed using transvaginal ultrasonography: (1) VIUP, (2) non-viable intrauterine pregnancy or failed pregnancy of unknown location, and (3) ectopic pregnancy or persisting pregnancy of unknown location. The predictive value of cut-off levels for ruling out VIUP were evaluated across a range of values likely to be encountered clinically for progesterone, ßhCG, and ßhCG ratio. RESULTS: Data from 2507 of 3272 (76.6%) women were suitable for analysis. All had data for ßhCG levels, 2248 (89.7%) had progesterone levels, and 1809 (72.2%) had ßhCG ratio. The likelihood of viability falls with the progesterone level. Although the median progesterone level associated with viability was 59 nmol/L, VIUP were identified with levels as low as 5 nmol/L. No single ßhCG cut-off reliably ruled out the presence of viability with certainty, even when the level was more than 3000 IU/L, there were 39/358 (11%) women who had a VIUP. The probability of viability decreases with the ßhCG ratio. Although the median ßhCG ratio associated with viability was 2.26, VIUP were identified with ratios as low as 1.02. A progesterone level below 2 nmol/L and ßhCG ratio below 0.87 were unlikely to be associated with viability but were not definitive when considering multiple imputation. CONCLUSIONS: Cut-off levels for ßhCG, ßhCG ratio, and progesterone are not safe to be used clinically to exclude viability in early pregnancy. Although ßhCG ratio and progesterone have slightly better performance in comparison, single ßhCG used in this manner is highly unreliable.

Gradient boosted trees with individual explanations: An alternative to logistic regression for viability prediction in the first trimester of pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Clinical models to predict first trimester viability are traditionally based on multivariable logistic regression (LR) which is not directly interpretable for non-statistical experts like physicians. Furthermore, LR requires complete datasets and pre-established variables specifications. In this study, we leveraged the internal non-linearity, feature selection and missing values handling mechanisms of machine learning algorithms, along with a post-hoc interpretability strategy, as potential advantages over LR for clinical modeling. METHODS: The dataset included 1154 patients with 2377 individual scans and was obtained from a prospective observational cohort study conducted at a hospital in London, UK, from March 2014 to May 2019. The data were split into a training (70%) and a test set (30%). Parsimonious and complete multivariable models were developed from two algorithms to predict first trimester viability at 11-14 weeks gestational age (GA): LR and light gradient boosted machine (LGBM). Missing values were handled by multiple imputation where appropriate. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework was applied to derive individual explanations of the models. RESULTS: The parsimonious LGBM model had similar discriminative and calibration performance as the parsimonious LR (AUC 0.885 vs 0.860; calibration slope: 1.19 vs 1.18). The complete models did not outperform the parsimonious models. LGBM was robust to the presence of missing values and did not require multiple imputation unlike LR. Decision path plots and feature importance analysis revealed different algorithm behaviors despite similar predictive performance. The main driving variable from the LR model was the pre-specified interaction between fetal heart presence and mean sac diameter. The crown-rump length variable and a proxy variable reflecting the difference in GA between expected and observed GA were the two most important variables of LGBM. Finally, while variable interactions must be specified upfront with LR, several interactions were ranked by the SHAP framework among the most important features learned automatically by the LGBM algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: Gradient boosted algorithms performed similarly to carefully crafted LR models in terms of discrimination and calibration for first trimester viability prediction. By handling multi-collinearity, missing values, feature selection and variable interactions internally, the gradient boosted trees algorithm, combined with SHAP, offers a serious alternative to traditional LR models.

The potential use of urinary hCG measurements in the management of pregnancies of unknown location.

Multiple measurements of serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) are used to predict the final pregnancy outcome for women with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) and monitor the management of ectopic pregnancy (EP). Urine-based testing would be more convenient and economical. This prospective cohort study involving 80 women assessed the degree of correlation between serum and urine hCG levels and whether urine hCG levels have the potential to impact clinical decision making in the management of women with a PUL. Paired urine and serum hCG measurements differed quite widely but were well correlated and the degree of correlation improved after creatinine correction. Although serial serum hCG measurements appear to be better for the overall prediction of pregnancy outcome in PUL (AUC 0.77-0.94 compared to corrected urine AUC 0.69-0.84), serial urine hCG measurements may have a role in identifying subtypes of low-risk PUL (AUC 0.83-0.84).

Validation of a virtual reality simulator for the use of transvaginal ultrasonography in gynaecology and early pregnancy.

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to validate a virtual reality simulation ultrasound model as a tool for training in the use of transvaginal ultrasonography in gynaecology and early pregnancy. METHODS: Three separate groups consisting of novice and intermediate level residents as well as expert ultrasound examiners were recruited to the study. All were asked to answer a questionnaire regarding demographic data and ultrasound experience. They subsequently completed two modules: basic gynaecology and early pregnancy, followed by corresponding assessments using a high-fidelity simulator (Scantrainer; Medaphor™, Cardiff, UK). Finally, the expert group completed an additional questionnaire about various elements of the simulator using a 5-point Likert scale. RESULTS: Each group consisted of eight participants. Overall, the participants agreed that simulation played a role in training (Novices: 75% (n = 6); Intermediates: 100% (n = 8); Experts: 75% (n = 6)). For the degree of realism of the target objects in the gynaecology and early pregnancy module environments compared to a real-patient environment, the simulator was rated satisfactory or very satisfactory by 88% (n = 7) and 75% (n = 6) of experts, respectively. All experts rated the overall usefulness of the content of the simulator for learning fundamental ultrasound technical skills compared to current training methods to be at least satisfactory. When reviewing the assessment scores, experts scored higher than non-experts in gynaecology (P = 0.002) and early pregnancy modules (P = 0.03). DISCUSSION: Face, content and construct validity were demonstrated by the virtual reality ultrasound simulator, suggesting it may be an effective method for training ultrasound skills in gynaecology and early pregnancy to non-expert residents.

Defining safe criteria to diagnose miscarriage: prospective observational multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES: To validate recent guidance changes by establishing the performance of cut-off values for embryo crown-rump length and mean gestational sac diameter to diagnose miscarriage with high levels of certainty. Secondary aims were to examine the influence of gestational age on interpretation of mean gestational sac diameter and crown-rump length values, determine the optimal intervals between scans and findings on repeat scans that definitively diagnose pregnancy failure.) DESIGN: Prospective multicentre observational trial. SETTING: Seven hospital based early pregnancy assessment units in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 2845 women with intrauterine pregnancies of unknown viability included if transvaginal ultrasonography showed an intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability. In three hospitals this was initially defined as an empty gestational sac <20 mm mean diameter with or without a visible yolk sac but no embryo, or an embryo with crown-rump length <6 mm with no heartbeat. Following amended guidance in December 2011 this definition changed to a gestational sac size <25 mm or embryo crown-rump length <7 mm. At one unit the definition was extended throughout to include a mean gestational sac diameter <30 mm or embryo crown-rump length <8 mm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean gestational sac diameter, crown-rump length, and presence or absence of embryo heart activity at initial and repeat transvaginal ultrasonography around 7-14 days later. The final outcome was pregnancy viability at 11-14 weeks' gestation. RESULTS: The following indicated a miscarriage at initial scan: mean gestational sac diameter ≥ 25 mm with an empty sac (364/364 specificity: 100%, 95% confidence interval 99.0% to 100%), embryo with crown-rump length ≥ 7 mm without visible embryo heart activity (110/110 specificity: 100%, 96.7% to 100%), mean gestational sac diameter ≥ 18 mm for gestational sacs without an embryo presenting after 70 days' gestation (907/907 specificity: 100%, 99.6% to 100%), embryo with crown-rump length ≥ 3 mm without visible heart activity presenting after 70 days' gestation (87/87 specificity: 100%, 95.8% to 100%). The following were indicative of miscarriage at a repeat scan: initial scan and repeat scan after seven days or more showing an embryo without visible heart activity (103/103 specificity: 100%, 96.5% to 100%), pregnancies without an embryo and mean gestational sac diameter <12 mm where the mean diameter has not doubled after 14 days or more (478/478 specificity: 100%, 99.2% to 100%), pregnancies without an embryo and mean gestational sac diameter ≥ 12 mm showing no embryo heartbeat after seven days or more (150/150 specificity: 100%, 97.6% to 100%). CONCLUSIONS: Recently changed cut-off values of gestational sac and embryo size defining miscarriage are appropriate and not too conservative but do not take into account gestational age. Guidance on timing between scans and expected findings on repeat scans are still too liberal. Protocols for miscarriage diagnosis should be reviewed to account for this evidence to avoid misdiagnosis and the risk of terminating viable pregnancies.

The characteristic ultrasound features of specific types of ovarian pathology (review).

Characterizing ovarian masses enables patients with malignancy to be appropriately triaged for treatment by subspecialist gynecological oncologists, which has been shown to optimize care and improve survival. Furthermore, correctly classifying benign masses facilitates the selection of patients with ovarian pathology that may either not require intervention, or be suitable for minimal access surgery if intervention is required. However, predicting whether a mass is benign or malignant is not the only clinically relevant information that we need to know before deciding on appropriate treatment. Knowing the specific histology of a mass is becoming of increasing importance as management options become more tailored to the individual patient. For example predicting a mucinous borderline tumor gives the opportunity for fertility sparing surgery, and will highlight the need for further gastrointestinal assessment. For benign disease, predicting the presence of an endometrioma and possible deeply infiltrating endometriosis is important when considering both who should perform and the extent of surgery. An examiner's subjective assessment of the morphological and vascular features of a mass using ultrasonography has been shown to be highly effective for predicting whether a mass is benign or malignant. Many masses also have features that enable a reliable diagnosis of the specific pathology of a particular mass to be made. In this narrative review we aim to describe the typical morphological features seen on ultrasound of different adnexal masses and illustrate these by showing representative ultrasound images.

A multicenter prospective external validation of the diagnostic performance of IOTA simple descriptors and rules to characterize ovarian masses.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the IOTA (International Ovarian Tumor Analysis group) (clinically oriented three-step strategy for preoperative characterization of ovarian masses when ultrasonography is performed by examiners with different background training and experience. METHODS: A 27-month prospective multicenter cross-sectional study was performed. 36 level II ultrasound examiners contributed in three UK hospitals. Transvaginal ultrasonography was performed using a standardized approach. Step one uses simple descriptors (SD), step two ultrasound simple rules (SR) and step three subjective assessment of ultrasound images (SA) by examiners. The final outcome was findings at surgery and the histological diagnosis of surgically removed masses. RESULTS: 1165 women with adnexal masses underwent transvaginal ultrasonography, 301 had surgery. Prevalence of malignancy was 31% (n=92). SD were able to classify 46% of the masses into benign or malignant (step one), with a sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 97%. Applying SD followed by SR to residual unclassified masses by SD enabled 89% of all masses (n=268) to be classified with a sensitivity 95% of and specificity of 95%. SA was then used to evaluate the rest of the masses. Compared to the risk of malignancy index (RMI), the sensitivity and specificity for the three-step (SD+SR+SA) strategy were 93% (95% CI: 86-97%) and 92% (95% CI: 87-95%) vs. 72% (95% CI: 62-80%) and 95% (95% CI: 91-97%) for RMI, respectively. CONCLUSION: The IOTA three-step strategy shows good test performance on external validation in the hands of ultrasonography examiners with different background training and experience. This performance is considerably better than the RMI.

A randomised study comparing a low dose of mifepristone and the Yuzpe regimen for emergency contraception.

OBJECTIVE: To compare 100 mg mifepristone with the standard Yuzpe regimen for emergency contraception. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Family Planning Clinic, Aberdeen. SAMPLE: One thousand women seeking emergency contraception within 72 hours after an episode of unprotected sexual intercourse. METHODS: Women were randomised to receive either 100 mg (half tablet) of mifepristone as a single dose or the Yuzpe regimen (two tablets each with 50 microg ethinyloestradiol and 0.25 mg levonorgestrel, to be repeated 12 hours later). OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude pregnancy rates, proportion of pregnancies prevented, side effects and patient acceptability. RESULTS: The crude pregnancy rates (95% CI) for the Yuzpe regimen and mifepristone were 3.6% (2.3-5.7) and 0.6% (0.2-1.8), respectively, with a significant difference between the two groups (RR 6.04; 95% CI 1.75-20.75). Mifepristone prevented 92% of pregnancies and the Yuzpe regimen preventing 56%. An increasing coitus to treatment interval was associated with contraceptive failure in the Yuzpe group (P = 0.03) with no association seen with mifepristone. Following administration of mifepristone 24.5% and 13.1% given the Yuzpe regimen had a delayed period (RR 2.14; 95% CI 1.46-3.15). Overall, mifepristone was better tolerated than the Yuzpe regimen with significantly fewer side effects. More women were satisfied (P < 0.0001) with mifepristone as an emergency contraceptive and would recommend it to a friend (P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Mifepristone administered in a 100 mg dose is a highly effective post-coital contraceptive with high patient acceptability and fewer side effects compared with the standard Yuzpe regimen. Delay in the onset of menstruation did not decrease patient acceptability.